"This is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets," Kalshi's founder said. Betting markets called Trump's win weeks ...

That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...

Kristin Soltis Anderson, an election pollster, cited the accuracy of professionals in the polling industry during a Saturday ...

These may not be the best numbers, but they are below average errors, i.e., as I suggested previously, the average error in ...

Exit polls don’t have a very good track record, and they can contribute to misleading narratives on election night.

Collectively they indicated that the presidential race would be close, and it appears they got it right without significantly ...

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

We received hundreds of questions during a Reddit AMA after Trump won re-election Wednesday. Here are some of the highlights.

Almost every major poll has the 2024 presidential race as a toss-up with just over a week until Election Day — and that ...

Preliminary exit polls also show that the top issues differ between those supporting Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Claiming superior leadership and casting himself as the true agent of change were keys to Donald Trump’s election victory, an ...

If the 2024 presidential contest proved anything, it's that the mass media no longer drive the national conversation. They ...